Here’s the Latest Polling Info on the 9 States Voting on Cannabis

This November is easily the biggest election for cannabis to date. Nine states will have initiatives on the ballot. States with recreational cannabis bills are Arizona, California, Maine, Massachusetts and Nevada. Medical cannabis bills are on the ballot in Arkansas, Florida, Montana and North Dakota.

Over the last 20 years, approval for cannabis has shifted dramatically. A 1996 Gallup poll showed that only 25 percent of Americans supported cannabis legalization. Compare that to 58 percent in 2015. Here is the latest polling data for the states who have initiatives on the ballot next month.

Recreational On The Ballot:

Arizona

Like Massachusetts, Arizona is embroiled in a hard fight to legalize recreational use. Prop. 205 has found itself up against a wealthy opponent and a stiff 15 percent retail tax on cannabis. A poll conducted by Data Orbital last week found that 45 percent of Arizona voters opposed the measure while 44 percent were in favor of the bill.

California

As one of the most prominent cannabis bills to date, California’s Proposition 64 would allow adults 21 and over to consume cannabis recreationally. Polls have consistently showed support for the initiative, and a poll conducted in late September by KPIX 5/Survey USA showed that 52 percent favored Prop. 64, compared to 41 percent who opposed the measure. Another poll from the Los Angeles Times on September 12 stated that 58 percent of respondents supported the measure.

Maine

Maine legalized medical cannabis in 1999, and the needed signatures were obtained to put recreational use on the ballot with plenty of time to spare. The Portland Press Herald conducted a poll recently that showed that 53 percent favored legalization with 38 percent opposing it.

Massachusetts

While California, Nevada and Maine all seemed like natural candidates for recreational legalization, Massachusetts has been a battle from day one. A September 10 poll conducted by WBUR/MassINC Polling Group found that 50 percent favored legalization and 45 percent opposed it. With the margin of error being 4.4 percent, right now Massachusetts appears to be a coin flip.

Nevada

California may be the biggest initiative of 2016, but Nevada was the first state to put recreational use on the ballot. Like California, it has a strong medical cannabis infrastructure, which makes recreational cannabis easier to implement. A mid-September poll from KTNV and Rasmussen Reports shows that 53 percent of residents support legalization against 39 percent who oppose it.

Medical On The Ballot:

Arkansas

Where a lot of the states on the list have pretty clear cut initiatives, Arkansas is confusing in that it has two medical use initiatives: the Arkansas Medical Marijuana Amendment (AMMA ) and the Arkansas Medical Cannabis Act (AMCA). The AMMA would only allow for 40 state dispensaries, while the AMCA would also allow for residents living more than 20 miles from a dispensary to grow up to ten cannabis plants.  To make things interesting a poll from Talk Business & Politics/Hendrix College finds that 49 percent are in favor of the AMMA with 43 percent opposed, whereas, 53 percent oppose the AMCA with only 36 percent favoring it.

Florida

Amendment 2 in Florida is hoping to avenge a cannabis defeat in 2014. Florida is also unique in that legalizing medical cannabis would require the state to amend its constitution. This means that Amendment 2 needs 60 percent of the popular vote, instead of the traditional 50 percent. The 2014 attempt received 59 percent in its defeat. Last week’s poll by WESH 2 and Public Policy Polling found that 69 percent favored the Amendment with 24 percent opposing it. FloridaPolitics.com has also found that since January 2015, eight polls have showed over 60 percent support.

Montana

Montana already legalized medical cannabis in 2004, but recent restrictions have rendered the medical cannabis system in the state inert. Initiative 182 hopes to reverse those recent restrictions to allow medical cannabis patients access to their medicine. Recent polling from Lewistown News-Argus shows that 54 percent approve of I-182 with 46 percent opposing it.

North Dakota

North Dakota, like Arkansas, would allow patients not living near a dispensary, in this case more than 40 miles, the option to grow their own plants. Unfortunately there hasn’t been a medical cannabis poll conducted within the state within the last two years. The last official poll came from Forum Communications Co., which commissioned the University of North Dakota College of Business and Public Administration who found that 47 percent supported legalization, with 41 percent opposing it. But considering the national opinion has shifted so much in the direction of legalization in the last two years, these numbers may improve.