Cannabis on the Rise

[dropcap class=”kp-dropcap”]I[/dropcap]n 1996, California citizens voted to approve medical cannabis and put the state at the forefront of cannabis politics and policy. Sadly, since then, California has taken a major backseat while other states have passed comprehensive adult use cannabis laws. To date, four states and D.C. have passed laws permitting recreational cannabis. States like Colorado and Washington have experienced increased tax revenue, a decrease in incarceration rates and helped to shift public opinion about cannabis on a national level.

By now, it’s no secret that California will take another swing at legalizing cannabis in November 2016. The recent passage of the Medical Marijuana Regulation & Safety Act has laid the groundwork that demonstrates that California is ready to reclaim the cannabis industry spotlight. First, however, California’s cannabis industry must consolidate their efforts in support of one ballot initiative. To date, there are approximately 10 different proposals that have been filed with state regulators for inclusion on the ballot. However, one proposal is the clear frontrunner.

California’s leading legalization initiative is the Adult Use of Marijuana Act (AUMA). The proposal is backed by Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, the Marijuana Policy Project and the Drug Policy Alliance and has the financial backing of former Facebook President and Napster founder, Sean Parker. AUMA would enact a 15 percent excise tax on retail sales of cannabis and allow for the possession of up to one ounce of cannabis and six cannabis plants. The Act would only grant licenses to Californian residents and give existing licensees priority.

AUMA picked up some serious steam in early December when it formally amended the initiative to instill safeguards to protect children and discourage teen use, enforce stronger worker and labor protections, shield small businesses with antimonopoly provisions and maintain local government control over commercial cannabis activity. The amendments are said to reflect a collaborative process, which included input from hundreds of stakeholders. Perhaps of greatest note, these amendments helped to consolidate support. AUMA’s main competitor was an initiative filed by ReformCA. Six ReformCA Board members have formally endorsed AUMA and it is likely that ReformCA will formally withdraw the measure from the ballot qualification process.  This united front will be critical in 2016.

While it appears that key industry players are coalescing around AUMA, California legalization in 2016 is far from a slamdunk.  The initiative will face attacks from the right as well as from cannabis activists who are more concerned with social justice than advancing business interests. Beyond that, a new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), finds that cannabis legalization is not really a burning issue for California voters. Just 30 percent of likely voters consider cannabis legalization “a very important issue,” and about 32 percent of estimated California voters say legalizing cannabis in California “is not at all important.” This poll demonstrates that the support is weaker than originally anticipated.

PPIC also found that lack of support among Latinos could cause major problems for California’s efforts. Almost four out of five California Latinos do not consider legalization “very important,” which could be a huge liability if Latinos turn out to vote against a Republican like Donald Trump.

The fact remains that there is a tremendous amount of work to be done in 2016. Hundreds of thousands of signatures need to be gathered to get AUMA on the ballot. Once that is achieved, the real campaigning will begin.  Based on PPIC’s findings, that will be an uphill battle, made even more challenging by the fact that many people already see cannabis as legal under the state medical cannabis program. Furthermore, California is massive and each region has its own set of concerns. Political analysts will have to educate voters and carefully craft their messages to appeal to the many different types of voters throughout the state. Simply because AUMA has the financial backing does not mean victory is a sure thing.

The road ahead is long and windy. One thing remains certain; the California cannabis community needs to unite behind one effort and ensure that a well thought out campaign is run throughout the entire state. The last thing we want is for another election year to pass with a failed legalization effort, leaving California behind once again.