A new report from cannabis business consulting and data firm Whitney Economics calculated the total cultivated output of cannabis in the U.S. in 2022 to be over 48.8 million pounds, considering both legal and illegal cannabis supply for all delivery methods, such as flower, edibles, concentrates, etc.
The 2022 Whitney Economics U.S. Cannabis Supply Report assessed the U.S cannabis supply at the national and state levels to provide a foundational report intended to inform stakeholders in the cannabis industry, including investors, regulators, business operators, and policy makers.
“Having developed both supply and demand models examining the legal and illicit markets, Whitney Economics has the tools available to assess markets from an operations, investment and regulatory perspective,” said Beau Whitney, chief economist at Whitney Economics. The report also noted the total legal cultivation capacity in the country exceeds the country’s demand if 100 percent of the licensed product is used.
The report also projects there will be more legal cannabis in the country than illegal cannabis starting in 2026, and total legal cannabis sales will reach almost $30 billion by the end of this year and $81.6 billion by 2030. U.S. cannabis sales are set to rise over 20 percent this year to $33 billion, which is up from $9 billion five years ago and $3 billion in 2015. Total international legal cannabis sales are projected to reach well over $130 billion by 2030.
A recent study by cannabis data company New Frontier Data projected more than 27.7 million pounds of legal cannabis will be cultivated in the U.S in 2030, up from the 7 million pounds cultivated in 2020. New Frontier Data predicts California will be the top cannabis producing state between 2022-2030, producing 26.4 million pounds of cannabis, followed by Florida, New York and Illinois as the only states predicted to produce over 10 million pounds of cannabis in the time frame.
“As the legal cannabis industry transitions eastward from West Coast markets, several factors will impact how cannabis is grown in the new markets,” the report said. “Different climatic conditions will favor controlled environments over outdoor cultivation, given either the length and depth of winters in the North, or summer humidity in the South.”
Cannabis has grown to become the sixth most valuable crop in the U.S., with adult-use cannabis farmers growing approximately 2,834 metric tons of cannabis in 15 legal states in 2022. The second annual harvest report published by Leafly showed cannabis farmers grew 24 percent more metric tons of cannabis than in 2021, but the value fell by around $1 billion due to the decrease in prices of legal cannabis. The report estimates the cannabis grown in the U.S. is worth $5 billion, while the value of the legal cannabis crop ranked fifth nationwide in 2021, with only corn, soybeans, hay, and cotton bringing in more money on a wholesale basis. Unlike the Whitney Economics report, the Leafly data is limited to only the production of adult-use cannabis harvested at active legal cannabis farms in 15 legal states.
Whitney Economics recently deployed its 2022 Cannabis Business Conditions Survey to licensed cannabis operators throughout the U.S to compile data on the direction of the cannabis industry, identify key issues for the industry and to assess the effects and impacts of changes in regulatory policies. The 2022 edition of the survey aims to build upon findings from the 2021 survey, which found: only 42 percent of respondents were turning a profit, and only 22 percent of California responses showing profitability; women and non-white respondents faring worse than white, male respondents; and numerous concerns plaguing cannabis business operators such as lack of access to common financial services like banking, market volatility and state and federal taxation.
